One of the most interesting and deceptive psychological biases is called the “end of history effect” an effect that leads us to believe we have reached the final point of change in our lives. We look at the path we have traveled, notice many changes over the past decade, yet somehow are convinced that in the near future we will hardly change at all.
Imagine I meet you on the street and ask: “How much do you think you will change in the next ten years?” The answers are usually: “I guess it will be more or less the same as today,” or “I am already pretty set,” or “Maybe some small changes, but mostly I am who I am.”
Then I ask another question: “How much have you changed in the past ten years?” Most people pause, smile, and start telling. Some went through a second career, others married or divorced, became parents, changed their worldview, then habits, hobbies, even musical preferences. In other words a lot has changed.
And then I ask the final question: “Why will the next ten years have so little change when the past ten years had so much?” This is exactly where the end of history effect hits and people realize that most likely the next ten years will feature a similar amount of change as the past ten years.
If I think my current version is final, I may give up opportunities to grow, learn less, try less, and take fewer risks. I might get stuck in a job, a relationship, or a lifestyle simply because I do not see myself changing.
Research shows we tend to greatly overestimate changes we have experienced in the past but significantly underestimate future changes. This is not just a mistake it is a consistent cognitive illusion. We see the past as dynamic but the future as static. The truth is that the future is no less surprising than the past and sometimes even more so. This illusion can lead to poor decisions.
Therefore, the important question is not only “Who am I today?” but also “How open am I to the possibility of being someone completely different in ten years?” This does not mean giving up identity it means recognizing the potential for development.
Awareness of the end of history effect should not confuse us it should liberate us. Understand that every version of ourselves is temporary, there are many more versions ahead, and the future is a place where we can be surprised even by ourselves.
But if the end of history effect is true for us as individuals what does it mean if it is also true for societies and nations? When we look at other countries, it is easy to think they have already reached “maturity,” that they will not change much, that they are more or less who they are and that we have also reached the place where we will be. But what if this thinking is wrong? What if the end of history effect applies not only to individuals but also to nations? What if we significantly underestimate the ability of our country and other countries to change?
Imagine we are considering diplomatic steps with other countries. We might ask ourselves can we reach an agreement with the current leadership of a certain country? But maybe this is not the right question. Maybe the question should be what is the likelihood that in the next ten years both we and they will change?
When making policy, we need to recognize not only the current situation but also the potential for change. Not out of naivety, but with the understanding that change is not only possible it is inevitable. Just as we change as individuals, nations, values, governments, and perceptions also change.
The important question is whether we can shape reality to allow for positive and far-reaching changes for ourselves and for others.